周波：沙特伊朗协议是我国担任全球中立斡旋者的第一步

发布时间：2025-04-29　点此：131次

导读：3月10日，沙伊两国代表进行“北京对话”，4月6日，两国外长在北京接见会面并签署联合声明，宣告即日起恢复外交关系。清华大学战略与安全研究中心研究员周波日前在《南华早报》宣告英文谈论以为，沙伊协议是我国担任全球中立斡旋者的第一步。就像在中东相同，我国是仅有能在俄乌战役中发挥建设性效果的大国。调查者网翻译发布中文版，以飨读者。

【文/周波，译/蒋绍澄，核译/韩桦】

我国在伊朗和沙特之间的成功斡旋不只具有里程碑含义，并且促进人们期望值更高：我国能否在小事其他地方也供给相似的帮助？

在中东，人们有时会说， “敌人的敌人未必是我的朋友”。这儿需求北京帮助处理的费事不乏其人。根据不结盟和不干涉内政的准则，我国是仅有与该区域一切国家都交好的大国，因而有或许在当下更为急迫的伊核问题上伸出援手。

据五角大楼泄漏，德黑兰的核武器开展令人重视：伊朗现在有才能在短短12天内制作出满足的核弹资料。

特朗普政府在2018年退出伊核协议，现在拜登政府与伊朗就重启核协议的商洽也陷入了僵局。作为2015年促进伊核协议的重要一方，北京或许能够像促成沙伊协议相同，先秘密地劝说德黑兰不要跨越制作核弹的雷池，之后再招集抒发华盛顿在内的主意相似的各利益攸关方与德黑兰重启商洽，以达到一个新的协议。

相比之下，乌克兰形势愈加扑朔迷离，我国的两个朋友在相互掐架，无人知道战役会相持多久，只知道一时半会它不或许消停。

我国在沙特与伊朗间成功斡旋，也有望在俄乌抵触中发挥建设性效果（图源：南华早报）

现在的应战是找到超逸协议的根底—不论它是触及俄罗斯无条件撤出乌克兰，仍是进行疆域商洽和退让。

俄罗斯期望的，想必是能至少声称取得少许成功。不然，俄罗斯总统普京难以解说为什么要发起这场战役。

乌克兰总统泽连斯基在2月时说，假如盟国能信守诺言，乌克兰就能取得成功。这意味着，假如这场战役变成一场长年累月的消耗战，的确存在乌克兰的盟友们不实行许诺的危险。

或许，这场战役会以签定相似于当年南北朝鲜都不甘愿签署的休战协定而告终。但不同之处在于，由于俄罗斯比乌克兰更强壮，因而鸿沟不论划在哪，终究都更难安定。

很难说欧洲的新安全架构将会是什么姿态，但俄罗斯和北约之间有必要进行商洽。

中心问题是表达处理俄罗斯的不安全感。北约说没有逼迫其他国家参加是现实，但北约自暗斗完毕后的继续扩张，现实上拔苗助长。

假如莫斯科确定北约的扩张对俄罗斯构成了生计要挟，以至于它不得不运用武力来反击，那么，北约越受欢迎，欧洲就会变得越不安全。这个包含着一批小事强国的最大军事联盟自诩为自卫安排，实在是荒诞可笑。

就像在中东相同，我国是仅有能在俄乌战役中发挥建设性效果的大国。当其他大国都站在乌克兰一边时，北京既没有与莫斯科结盟，一起也与基辅坚持友好关系。我国没有供给任何军事支撑，但仍具有俄罗斯的信赖。

基辅或许会欢迎北京发挥中立斡旋者的效果。2013年12月，时任乌克兰总统亚努科维奇拜访北京期间，我国宣告不会对乌克兰运用或要挟运用核武器，并宣告当第三方有任何此类要挟时为乌克兰供给安全拭目而待。

北京在战役一周年之际宣告的十二点超逸计划，是继抵触迸发以来所持的慎重平衡态度之上，向前迈出的一大步。十二点超逸计划中的内容很难被应战质疑，如一切各方需求尊重主权、坚持理性和抑制，要把有用维护布衣放在首位等。

可是，在俄乌都没有表现出休战倾向的情况下，超逸计划不能拭目而待会取得成功。2022年，泽连斯基乃至签署了一项法则，制止与普京进行任何商洽。此外，小事刑事法院最近对普京宣告的逮捕令也使停火的期望愈加迷茫。

华盛顿方面也激烈对立停火，以为这只会稳固俄罗斯取得的战果。

虽然俄罗斯宣告在白俄罗斯布置战术核武器，但由于北京发挥的效果，欧洲人最忧虑的问题—战役会延伸成核战役—其或许性现已大大下降。

在与德国总理朔尔茨和美国总统拜登的接见会面中，习主席现已清晰表明，不能在欧洲运用核武器。因而，普京总统在本月与习主席的联合声明中重申，“核战役打不赢，也打不得”，这让一切人如释重负。

北京下一步会做什么还有待调查，但很明显，它有一个长长的待办事项清单。明显，在一个日益割裂的小事中，人们等待我国成为超逸的稳定器与中立的斡旋者。四十多年前我国改革开放伊始，时任领导人邓小平曾说，我国要“摸着石头过河”。现在，一个全球化的我国现已步入海洋。海床深不行及，我国只要义无反顾，破浪前行。

【本文原载于《南华早报》】

本文英文原文：

Saudi-Iran deal is a stepping stone for China in its global role as honest broker

China’s success as a mediator between Iran and Saudi Arabia is more than a milestone. It is also a stepping stone leading to higher expectations: can China help similarly elsewhere?

In the Middle East, where it is sometimes said that the enemy of my enemy is not necessarily my friend, there are enough troubles for Beijing to address. Being the only major power that befriends everybody thanks to its policy of non-alliance and non-interference, China can probably further help with another more pressing problem – the Iranian nuclear issue.

According to the Pentagon, Tehran’s nuclear development has been remarkable; it can now produce enough material for a nuclear bomb in 12 days

The Trump administration withdrew from a nuclear pact in 2018 and negotiations between the Biden administration and Iran on restarting the nuclear deal have stalled. Perhaps Beijing, one of the negotiators of the deal struck in 2015, can first persuade Tehran behind closed doors – like it did with the Saudi-Iran deal – to not cross the threshold of making a nuclear bomb, before bringing together like-minded stakeholders, including Washington, to renegotiate a new deal with Tehran.

The situation is much more complicated in Ukraine where China’s two friends have been at each other’s throats. No one knows how long the war will last except that it will last.

The challenge is to find the foundations for a peace agreement – whether it involves Russia’s unconditional withdrawal from Ukraine or territorial negotiations and concessions.

Presumably Russia would want to be able to claim at least some victory. Otherwise, Russian President Vladimir Putin would find it hard to explain why he launched the war at all.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said in February that victory is inevitable if allies keep their promise. That means there is indeed a risk of the allies not keeping their promise if this war turns out to be a war of attrition.

Perhaps the end game is an armistice akin to that between North and South Korea, which no one likes. The difference, though, is that Russia is much more powerful than Ukraine, and therefore the border, wherever it might be, would be much more difficult to secure.

It is hard to tell what a new security architecture in Europe might look like. But there would have to be negotiations between Russia and Nato.

The core question is how to address Russia’s sense of insecurity. Nato is right to say it hasn’t forced countries to join the security alliance, but it is Nato’s unrelenting expansion since the end of the Cold War that has backfired.

If Moscow believes Nato’s expansion constitutes an existential threat to Russia that it has to use force to push back, then the more popular Nato is, the more insecure Europe will become. It is ludicrous for the most powerful military alliance on Earth, which includes some of the world’s strongest nations, to describe itself as a self-defence organisation.

Like in the Middle East, China is the only major power that can play a constructive role in Russo-Ukrainian war. All other major powers have already sided with Ukraine. Beijing is not allied with Moscow, and still friendly with Kyiv. China has Russia’s trust even though it has not provided any military support.

And Beijing’s role as an honest broker is likely to be welcomed by Kyiv. During then Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych’s visit to Beijing in December 2013, China declared that it would not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine and would provide security assurances against any such threat by a third party.

Beijing’s 12-point peace plan announced at the one-year anniversary of the war is a huge step forward from its carefully balanced position since the outbreak of the conflict. It includes some core concepts that few can challenge, such as the need for all parties to respect sovereignty, exercise rationality and restraint, and prioritise the effective protection of civilians.

But there is no guarantee the peace plan will succeed when both sides have shown no inclination to stop fighting. In 2022, Zelensky even signed a decree banning any negotiation with Putin. The recent arrest warrant for Putin issued by the International Criminal Court will make any chance of a ceasefire slimmer.

Washington is strongly opposed to a ceasefire too, saying that this will only freeze Russia’s gains on the ground.

In spite of Russia’s announcement of deploying tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, thanks to Beijing, the possibility of Europeans’ worst fear – that the war will spill over into a nuclear war – being realised has been considerably reduced

In his meetings with German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz and US President Joe Biden, President Xi has made it crystal clear that no nuclear weapons could be used in Europe. Therefore, Putin’s reiteration in the joint statement with Xi this month that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought should be a huge relief to everyone.

It remains to be seen what Beijing might do next, but it is clear that it has a long to-do list. Apparently in an ever-divided world, people look to China to be a stabiliser as well as an honest broker.

When China kicked off its reform over four decades ago, Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping famously said China needed to cross the river by feeling the stones on the riverbed. Now a global China has entered the ocean. It cannot feel the seabed, but there is no turning back.

告发/反应